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Disappointment, frustration and wrath

For a long time I have hesitated to write on the negative feeling prevailing in Japan since the 1990s. It is a sort of frustration coupled with stalemate feeling or cooped-up feeling and vague fear of gradual decline. But, now I decided to write this article, because the situation is really too bad and I wish that foreign people will know that the Japanese people are not stupid to overlook it but keenly aware of the imminent crisis - state of emergency.

Democratic Party (DP) does not want to understand that it was NOT chosen by the voters because of its "Manifesto" but because people were simply disappointed by the incompetence of the latest Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) PMs and the confusion in LDP. However, people did not need much time to realize that LDP is worse than LDP; LDP at least knew that it was not able to plan policies. LDP used the bureaucratic system, the one and only think tank in Japan in planning and executing policies and the party was satisfied with its role in channeling the requests of interest groups. DP on the other hand, criticized career bureaucrats as privileged people(1) and has succeeded in intimidating them into paralysis. It is natural that bureaucrats have become very timid in taking a political risk, while DP does nothing other than sprinkling tax money so that they can retain voters at the future elections. DP politicians have been loudly announcing that they fight bureaucrats and they, politicians, will lead politics. But, people already realized that politicians, regardless whether they belong to DP or LDP, can do nothing without the support from bureaucrats.

While politicians are doing nothing, Japan is on the verge of bankruptcy. Very little time is left to reverse the devastating financial situation. The accumulated state indebtedness has reached or is about to reach the size which can be covered by the total domestic assets. It is very natural that S&P recently downgraded Japan. What we need is a drastic change in budget structure: sharp cut in welfare expenditure and in tax allocation to local governments and a big raise in the consumption tax(2)rate.

However, there are NO serious debates on principal policy direction because politicians are more concerned about their reelection than the national destiny. If politicians are not able to tackle the problems which are fatal to the existence of the nation, what are they? We feel that we were in the similar situations as in the 1930s when young officers took up weapons to terminate the corrupt politics. What should we do now in 2011?

The involvement of the PM Tanaka in the Lockheed bribery affair was exposed in 1976 and Tanaka lost his PM post and shortened his life. Since the 1980s the purification of personal relations among politicians, bureaucrats and business people advanced. But, the speed of leveling-up of the correctness standard always outpaced the self and voluntary purification process. The series of Sumo scandal – I really regret that the latest bout-fixing scandal might put an end to the more than 200 years lasting Oozumo tradition – happened also because there is a gap between the speed of self-purification and of the escalation of criticism.

Ordinary Japanese people are all convinced that the darkest people are politicians and our suspect has been endorsed more than enough.

What can replace bureaucracy?

As bureaucrats have been bitterly disgraced, capable young people do not want to be unpopular governmental officials any more, which is quite understandable. The number of career-bureaucrat candidates decreases drastically and their quality as well(5). In reality bureaucrats in the ministries functioned as the one and only think tank of Japan. Without their knowledge and ability, the Japanese government cannot function. Therefore, it was indeed ridiculous for DP to exclude officials from policy making. The former DP PM abolished the regular meeting of vice-ministers of all ministries, because the coordination among ministries and decision making rests on politicians and not on bureaucrats. Such an anti-bureaucrats stance of the DP politicians has only brought about the paralysis of the government functions and the weakening of the governance.

The fundamental problem is that the Japanese parties do not have any well-thought-out policy proposals and the knowledge necessary for drafting rational policies. They do not possess machinery to enable it. I believe that the Japanese "parties" are not parties but merely groups of politicians to gather money and work for their reelection. Except for ganging-up for money and power, there is no shared goal. Their political convictions are different and they represent different and often contradictory interests even within a party. Their so-called "policies" are measures to channel subsidy and other governmental money to their supporting voters. DP does the same as LDP, maybe with more integrated and sophisticated way with the leadership of MP Ozawa, the direct disciple of the former PM Tanaka.

However, what is needed is the own effective think tank of political parties, so that they can develop their own policy experts and integrated sets of national and international policies. At the same time I wish that such think tanks can have personal exchanges with academy, business and finally but most importantly with bureaucracy. They must also take more active role in the international networking. Japan has been traditionally suffering from the underrepresentation in the international fora. If Japanese politicians should do something in diplomacy, they must have friends and networks in foreign countries. Therefore, I hope that the organizations which have a say in the policy making have good networks with foreign intellectual leaders.

I wish that parties make their election promises based on the well-thought-out drafts of their think tanks. My further dream is that competent researchers of such think tanks candidate for Members of Parliament and assume important posts such as ministers in the government as well as in the party organs.

Their parents’ generations did not get good jobs at big companies, even though they were talented, because their families were still poor and many of them had to give up receiving higher education. Now, more than 50% of the young people go to universities and the level of students is lower than before accordingly. Fewer jobs at large companies and more graduates lead to the present difficult job market.

Is that really a difficulty? If graduation from university does not ensure a job at a big company, why don’t they want to work at smaller companies and try their fortune, where people are looking for graduates from universities, if they are not willing to go abroad?

While the unemployment rate among the newly graduated students possibly increases to 30% this year, we can see many foreign people working in restaurants, convenience stores and construction sites as service staff and workers. Japanese factories and agri-business cannot operate any more without foreign trainees – in fact cheap wage workers. Japanese young people should not refuse the work as manual laborer, if they are not well qualified and attractive enough to the employers.

If our young people are not willing to become attractive workers for employers, why not invite more foreigners to Japan? It can be at the same time the best solution to the problem of fewer children and smaller population. I find it attractive to accelerate naturalization process and if possible promote naturalization of the nationals of our neighboring countries; say sumo wrestlers from Mongolia and IT engineers from China. If we look back the history, we find that the population of Japan increased by way of naturalization, or more exactly speaking the framework of the Japanese state was established by immigrants during the first millennium. As we are more or less descendants of the ancestors from the continent, why is there a reason to reject new immigrants; if immigrants can speak Japanese, they can easily become members of our society, as we have very few religious and other taboos.

Selfhelp

Having said this, however, it is more than clear to me that no drastic change would take place both in the function of parties as well as in the mind-set of the Japanese people in the near future. Therefore, I am very pessimistic as to the question whether we can avoid crisis in the coming years. Experts in monetary and financial affairs tell me that the crisis is unavoidable. However, they are not sure when it happens - in two years or five years, though not as long as 10 year. They are also not sure in what way our future crisis could develop. We have many recent precedents such as Greece, Ireland and Korea. But, they are all different in their crisis.

In any case, one thing is sure, we cannot rely on the Japanese politicians; we have to protect ourselves by ourselves.